How Does the NBA Draft Lottery Work?
On this page5
The NBA draft lottery is a weighted random draw among the 14 non-playoff teams for the top four picks. Worse records get better odds, but since a 2019 reform the three worst teams share identical 14% odds at the No. 1 pick, flattening the reward for finishing last. Nothing is guaranteed — a low-odds team can still jump to the top.
How the draw works
Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1–14 generate four-number combinations, and each of the 14 lottery teams is assigned a slice of those combinations based on its record. Four combinations are drawn to set picks one through four. Every other lottery team then slots in by reverse order of record, from the 5th pick down to the 14th.
The odds, after the 2019 reform
| Team by record | Odds at No. 1 |
|---|---|
| 3 worst teams (tied) | 14.0% each |
| Middle lottery teams | Declining |
| 14th lottery team | Under 1% |
Flattening the top three teams’ odds was designed to remove the clear advantage of being the single worst team.
Why the odds were flattened
The reform targeted tanking — losing on purpose to climb the draft. When the worst record meant the best odds by a wide margin, teams had an incentive to lose. Equalizing the top three and lowering the very worst team’s shot at No. 1 reduced that incentive while still giving struggling teams a genuine chance at a star.
Only the top four are drawn
The lottery decides just the first four picks. Picks 5 through 14 follow reverse standings. This is why a team with the best odds can still slide a couple of spots if the balls favor others — the built-in randomness that keeps the system from simply rewarding the most losses.
How it compares to other leagues
The NBA’s approach mirrors the MLB draft lottery and NHL draft lottery: weighted random draws that help weak teams rebuild without over-rewarding deliberate losing. For more on the league, its draft and its stars, see our basketball guides.
Frequently asked questions
How does the NBA draft lottery work?+
The 14 teams that miss the playoffs enter a weighted lottery for the top four picks. Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1–14 produce four-number combinations, and each team is assigned a share of those combinations based on its record — worse teams get more. Four draws set the top four picks; every other lottery team then picks in reverse order of regular-season record, from 5th down to 14th.
Which teams are in the NBA draft lottery?+
The 14 teams that did not make the playoffs, including any teams eliminated in the play-in tournament. Playoff teams are not in the lottery; their draft slots (15th through 30th) are set by how far they advanced and their records. So the lottery only shuffles the order among the league's non-playoff teams for the very top of the draft.
What are the odds in the NBA draft lottery?+
Since a 2019 change, the three worst teams each have an equal 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, and the odds decline from there down to a fraction of a percent for the 14th-seeded lottery team. The reform flattened the top odds so that being the single worst team no longer gives a clear edge, part of the league's effort to reduce tanking.
Why did the NBA flatten the lottery odds?+
To discourage tanking — deliberately losing to improve draft position. Before 2019, the worst team had the best odds by a clear margin, creating an incentive to lose. By giving the bottom three teams identical top odds and lowering the very worst team's chance at No. 1, the league reduced the reward for finishing last while still giving struggling teams a real shot at a franchise player.
How many picks does the lottery decide?+
Only the top four picks are drawn in the lottery. The remaining lottery teams (picks 5 through 14) are ordered simply by reverse standings — the worse the record, the earlier the pick. So a team can enter with the best odds and still 'fall' a few spots if the ping-pong balls favor others, which is the built-in risk of the weighted system.
Can a team with low odds win the No. 1 pick?+
Yes, and it has happened. Because the lottery is random within its weights, a team with only a small percentage chance can still land the top pick, jumping ahead of teams with worse records. That unpredictability is the point: it rewards bad teams on average while removing the certainty that losing more guarantees a better pick.
Is the NBA draft lottery like other leagues?+
It is similar in spirit to the [MLB draft lottery](/mlb-draft-lottery-odds/) and the [NHL draft lottery](/nhl-draft-lottery-odds-explained/), all of which use weighted random draws to assign top picks and curb tanking. The exact number of teams, picks drawn, and odds differ by league, but the shared goal is to help weaker teams rebuild without rewarding deliberate losing too heavily.
Sources
Play & tools
Free browser games and tools — no account, no download.
- Play 82-0 — Draft five, one per position, and see if your lineup can go a flawless NBA season.
- Play Era Ball — Draft an all-time NBA roster from a single era, then simulate a season and chase a perfect run.
- Play 32-0 — Draft five college basketball legends, one per position, and chase a perfect 32-0 national title.
- Explore all our games →
- Get the printable bracket — Download and print a blank tournament bracket to fill out by hand.
- Open the TS% calculator — Calculate TS% from points, field goal attempts and free throw attempts — scoring efficiency in one number.
- Explore all our free sports tools →
Related basketball guides
View all →
How Do the NBA Playoffs Work? Format Explained
The NBA playoffs are a 16-team, best-of-seven bracket: eight teams per conference, four rounds, ending in the NBA Finals. Seeds 7–10 reach it via the play-in.
NBA Play-In Tournament Explained
The NBA play-in tournament decides the 7 and 8 seeds in each conference. Teams that finish 7th–10th play a short knockout for the last two playoff spots.
WNBA Ball Size vs the NBA
A WNBA ball is 28.5 inches in circumference (a size 6), one inch smaller than the NBA's 29.5-inch size 7. What that means and why the leagues differ.
The Restricted Area in Basketball
The restricted area is a 4-foot arc under the basket where a defender can't draw a charge. What the semicircle means and how the no-charge rule works.
What Is a Heat Check in Basketball?
A heat check is a bold, often difficult shot a player takes after making several in a row to test if they're truly 'on fire.' The term explained.
What Is an And-One in Basketball?
An and-one is when a player is fouled while making a basket and earns one free throw for a possible three-point play. How it works, explained.