Rumor: Mets, Dodgers and Cubs Are Circling Tarik Skubal as the Lockout Clock Runs Down

Free agency opened on Monday evening, and by the end of the week the winter’s biggest name already had a three-team race and a deadline hanging over it. Tarik Skubal, the two-time Cy Young winner, is the free agent every contender wants, and the reporting says the Mets, Dodgers and Cubs are all in the mix. Nothing is agreed yet, and the reporting is clear about that too: the Mets have not decided how far they will go, the Cubs could balk at the price, and the only firm date in the story is December 1, when a lockout is expected to freeze the market.

What is actually being reported about Skubal?

Interest, not offers, and the interest is real. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Mets are very interested and are expected to be players, with a feeding frenzy for Skubal already underway one day into free agency. MLB Trade Rumors reports the Dodgers are generally viewed as one of the two likeliest destinations alongside the Mets, and that ESPN’s Jeff Passan has the Cubs in on Skubal as well. The same roundup reports ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has the Yankees at least considering a push, and the Tigers keeping tabs in case their former ace comes at a discounted rate. That is the whole of the confirmed picture: four teams watching, one team with a price problem, and no numbers on the table yet.

Why is the December 1 lockout forcing the pace?

Because it turns a normal winter into a three-week sprint. MLB Trade Rumors notes there are three and a half weeks until the December 1 lockout, and Heyman reports Skubal is expected to set a record contract for a pitcher and may sign quickly in a tough labor environment. His Thursday column adds the reason: some agents are already complaining that teams are slow to make offers, with owners wanting to see the rules before diving in. Skubal is the exception to that caution, because for teams seeking a true ace he is the only game going, and the only one until after 2028, when Hunter Brown will be free, Heyman reports. Next week’s GM Meetings, which MLB Trade Rumors says figure to take on more importance this winter than in most years, is where the early market usually turns into real numbers.

Why are the Mets and Dodgers different kinds of suitors?

Because one of them has to beat the other, and it has never gone well. Heyman reports the Mets are 0-for-4 when they go up against the Dodgers one-on-one in recent years, losing Kyle Tucker, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Trevor Bauer and Edwin Diaz to Los Angeles. The Mets’ case this time is need: baseball president David Stearns said he would love to add an ace, and Heyman reports Skubal alongside young starters Nolan McLean and Christian Scott would form a formidable top of the rotation. The Dodgers’ case is simpler: they are better set up for luxury buys, MLB Trade Rumors reports, with fewer roster holes to fill, and Skubal already enjoyed his two-plus months there, with Blake Snell looking like his new best friend, Heyman reports. That last detail matters more than it sounds: Skubal would not comment on his future in the Dodgers clubhouse in October, so Snell began recruiting him to stay, and the beer-soaked celebration that followed only deepened the impression that he belongs in Los Angeles.

Could the Cubs actually pay more than $300 million?

They have the room, but the habit points the other way. MLB Trade Rumors reports the Cubs’ projected $168.9 million luxury tax number for 2027 sits almost $100 million below where they ended the 2026 season, and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has declared the offseason focus is mostly pitching. But the same report notes the Cubs have yet to sign a player for more than the $184 million Jason Heyward contract over a decade ago, and Skubal could command more than twice that amount. Their organizational history would point more toward the likes of Trevor Rogers, Michael King or Freddy Peralta as the big rotation move, MLB Trade Rumors reports. The Cubs are a credible bidder with real payroll space, not a favorite, and the reporting frames them that way.

What about the Yankees and the Tigers?

Both are watching from further back. MLB Trade Rumors reports McDaniel has the Yankees at least considering a Skubal push, with the ability to subsequently trade from the rotation, presumably one or two of Ryan Weathers, Will Warren and Clarke Schmidt, if they landed him. They are generally viewed as a longer shot because they are one of the few teams that does not need a starting pitcher. The Tigers, meanwhile, are likely to keep tabs on their longtime ace in case there is an opportunity to land him at a discounted rate, which the reporting calls highly unlikely given the number of big-market clubs involved. Detroit’s recent pattern under Scott Harris has been to pounce late on pitchers who linger, as it did with Framber Valdez last offseason, but Skubal is not expected to linger.

What happens next?

The GM Meetings next week, then the lockout clock. Heyman reports some people in the industry expect Skubal to come off the board early, and the structure of the market agrees with them: he is the only true ace available, the Mets and Dodgers have a history of fighting over exactly this kind of player, and the Cubs have the payroll room to crash the party. The dark horses are the Padres and Angels, with new owners and a resolve to win, Heyman reports, plus the Blue Jays, Phillies and Orioles, who usually try hard. If Skubal signs before December 1, it will be the deal that sets the market for every pitcher behind him, and the team that gets him will have beaten the Dodgers to do it. That is the bet the Mets are weighing right now, and it is why they have not yet decided how far they are willing to go.