Andreeva Wins 11 Straight Games to Bagel Sabalenka at the WTA Finals

Mirra Andreeva beat Aryna Sabalenka 6-4, 6-0 at the WTA Finals on Wednesday, and the scoreline barely tells the story. Sabalenka led 4-1 in the first set and looked in control. Andreeva then won the last 11 games of the match, 45 of the final 55 points, and a semifinal place on her WTA Finals debut, all in one hour and two minutes. Sabalenka now has to beat Elina Svitolina on Friday or go home.

How did the match turn?

In about fifteen minutes. Sabalenka, the world No. 2 and US Open runner-up, made the stronger start and broke Andreeva in the fourth game of a closely fought opening set to move 3-1 ahead, Reuters reports, then held for 4-1. Andreeva responded immediately, winning three consecutive games to draw level at 4-4 before breaking Sabalenka again and serving out the set. She kept the momentum in the second set, breaking early and racing into a 3-0 lead, and she did not allow Sabalenka another game for the rest of the match.

The numbers behind the run are stark. After being broken in the fourth game, Andreeva did not allow Sabalenka a single break point for the rest of the match, TennisWorldUSA reports. She fired five aces, hit 16 winners and converted five of her 10 break-point chances, while Sabalenka finished with eight winners and 23 unforced errors. “In one of the more remarkable displays of tennis of the WTA season, Mirra Andreeva defeated World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka on Wednesday in a way that had to be seen to be believed,” the Palm Springs Desert Sun wrote.

How complete was the shutout?

Total, once it started. The second set was 6-0, and the first set’s last five games went Andreeva’s way as well, which is how a 4-1 deficit became an 11-game winning run. The Desert Sun noted that everything worked for her in that stretch: serve, return game, every drop shot, every passing shot finding its mark. Sabalenka had been the player everyone expected to contend for the title, and an hour later she had been handed one of the most emphatic defeats of the tournament.

It is worth remembering what Andreeva had already done in the group. She beat Svitolina in her opener, Reuters reports, so the win over Sabalenka was her second straight Group 2 victory and it clinched top spot in the group before her final round-robin match. She reaches the semifinals on her WTA Finals debut, and she does it as group winner, which means she avoids the other group’s winner until the final.

What does the result do to the group?

It sets up a Friday eliminator. Svitolina battled back to beat Karolina Muchova 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 earlier on Wednesday, Reuters reports, recovering from a set down and an injury timeout in which the trainer had her lying on the court going through stretches. The result eliminated Muchova from semifinal contention, while Svitolina will face Sabalenka in Friday’s final group match with the remaining place in the last four at stake. Andreeva plays Muchova in the other Friday match, with nothing but momentum on the line for her.

The week in Indian Wells keeps producing rows off the court as well as results on it. Sabalenka apologised earlier in the week after a hot-mic comment on a beIN Sports broadcast, as covered in the desk’s Sabalenka hot-mic story, and Andreeva was at the centre of the other hot-mic row, after Jessica Pegula’s practice-court comment, which ended with Pegula apologising to her in person. Rybakina pulled out of the event and Gauff beat Pegula in the opener, and Muchova only clinched the last Finals spot when Kostyuk retired in Ningbo.

What did Andreeva make of it?

An eight out of ten, by her own grading. Asked what mark she would give herself for the performance, Andreeva said: “I would give myself a good eight. To earn a 10, you have to play the best match of your life. I feel like it was good, solid, but not great enough for a 10.” It is a tough verdict on a match in which she won 11 straight games against the world No. 2, and it says something about the standard she holds herself to at 19, in her first WTA Finals, as the French Open champion and the world No. 3.

What happens next?

Friday decides the rest of the group. Sabalenka against Svitolina is a straight eliminator for the last semifinal spot, and Svitolina, who won this event in 2018, will fancy her chances after rallying past Muchova from a set down. Andreeva against Muchova is a dead rubber for the group standings but a live one for momentum: a third straight win would send the debutant into the semifinals without having dropped a set all week, and having beaten the world No. 2 without losing a game after 4-1 down.