Devils Bench Hellebuyck for His Winnipeg Return Over 'Expected Win Probability'

The New Jersey Devils will not start Connor Hellebuyck in Winnipeg on Tuesday, in what would have been his first game back against the Jets since the October 23 trade. General manager Sunny Mehta announced the decision in a Sunday statement, and the reason he gave is the story: playing their 5-0-0 goaltender, Mehta said, would potentially give the Devils a reduction in their expected win probability. Hellebuyck wanted to play. The club said no, and then published the maths.

What did the Devils actually announce?

A benching, delivered as a press release on a Sunday night. Mehta’s statement, carried in full by the New York Post and TSN, reads: “This has been an organizational decision for us that we’ve debated at length. Connor Hellebuyck was adamant that he felt a duty to play on Tuesday in Winnipeg. However, in our estimation, playing in this game would potentially give us a reduction in our expected win probability. Even though Connor isn’t playing, at his request, we will coordinate a media availability after Tuesday’s morning skate at Canada Life Centre.” The decision came hours after Hellebuyck made 23 saves in a 4-0 shutout win at Toronto on Sunday, his fifth straight win since the trade. The Devils are 13-5 and trail the defending Stanley Cup champion Hurricanes for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division.

Why would a 5-0-0 goalie hurt win probability?

That is the question nobody at the club has answered with a number. Hellebuyck is 5-0-0 since joining New Jersey with a .913 save percentage and a 1.96 goals-against average, TSN reports. Jake Allen, who starts on Tuesday, is 6-3-0 with a .881 save percentage and a 3.20 goals-against average this season. On the record, the two explanations sit side by side without meeting: Mehta’s is about expected win probability, and head coach Sheldon Keefe’s is about workload. “From our perspective, when you zoom out, this is a goaltender that is not going to play every single game of the season. You’re always looking for times to give him a night off,” Keefe said, TSN reports. The workload case is ordinary and would have passed unnoticed. The win-probability sentence is the one fans are quoting, because it says the team is better off without its hottest goaltender in the most emotional game on its schedule.

What did Hellebuyck say?

That he is disappointed, that he understands, and that the choice was not his. “Selfishly, I want to play, but when you’re looking at what’s best for the team, I understand where they’re coming from,” he said after the Toronto win, the New York Post reports. “I love Winnipeg. Playing there again, just facing the music, seeing the reaction, it’d be nice. It’s out of my hands.” He also said the two sides had talked it through: “We definitely had a conversation. I told them my thoughts on it and they told me theirs. At the end of the day, I have to listen to them. I can only push so hard. I was adamant that I wanted to play. But it is what it is.” He closed with the line that will follow him into Tuesday: “I know there’s a pretty sour taste. However I’m perceived, I’m going to choose love and to remember being part of that community.”

Will he even be seen on Tuesday?

Probably only in warmups. TSN reports Hellebuyck is expected to dress as Allen’s backup and take the ice for warmups, but that may be the only time the crowd at Canada Life Centre sees him. Backup goaltenders in Winnipeg usually sit near the Zamboni tunnel rather than on the team bench, because of limited space, and Hellebuyck’s own routine through his career has been to stay in the locker room when he is serving as the backup or has been pulled from a game. If he holds to that habit, he will be out of sight, though not out of mind, for a return that was supposed to be the night’s main event. The Devils did arrange one appearance for him: a media availability after Tuesday’s morning skate, at his request, where he will address why he asked for the trade.

How did the divorce get here?

Through a holdout that ended in a blockbuster. Hellebuyck told the Jets he wanted out at the end of last season, TSN reports, and was suspended in September for failing to report to training camp, then handed a three-week suspension to start the campaign. He was traded to New Jersey on October 23, the day the suspension was set to end, after waiving his no-movement clause. The Devils sent prospect Alexander Command, forwards Dawson Mercer and Nick Bjugstad, goaltender Nico Daws, a 2027 seventh-round pick and a 2029 second-round pick to Winnipeg. It closed a standoff this site tracked from the first missed cheque through the suspension’s scheduled end date, the physical-delay reporting around the trade itself and the fan-built tracker that counted his forfeited salary at about 45 cents a second. He spent his first 11 seasons in Winnipeg, won the Vezina Trophy in 2020, 2024 and 2025, and won the Hart Trophy in 2025. He cited very challenging circumstances involving his family as the reason for the request, the New York Post reports.

What happens next?

Tuesday, twice over. First the morning skate, where Hellebuyck finally explains on the record why he asked out of Winnipeg, a question he has answered so far only with a short social media statement about his family. Then the game, in which the Devils will test Mehta’s arithmetic in public: Allen in net, Hellebuyck in the locker room or by the tunnel, and a Winnipeg crowd that had spent weeks waiting to greet, or boo, its former franchise goaltender. If Allen wins, the statement reads as a cold but correct piece of load management. If he does not, the sentence about expected win probability will be quoted back at the club for the rest of the season, and the next goalie controversy in the league will be measured against it, from a Rangers net that now belongs to a 24-year-old after Igor Shesterkin was ruled out for the season to Semyon Varlamov starting for the Islanders after 676 days and two partial knee replacements.

Update, November 9: Arniel says Hellebuyck “gave up on us”

Update note (November 9, 2026): This article tracked any further comment from the Devils and Hellebuyck on the benching. The sharpest comment of the day came from the other bench: the coach of the team Hellebuyck left.

Winnipeg did not take the news quietly. Jets coach Scott Arniel said on Monday that the benching was a disappointment, and he put the blame where he thinks it belongs. “To me, it goes back to the ownership, it goes back to the fans, it goes back to the core guys that have been with ‘Helly’ from the very beginning, that he kind of left on,” Arniel said, NHL.com reports. “That’s the part for me that is hard. He just gave up on us, and it would be nice to be finally done with this.” The game was supposed to be the end of the story, the night Winnipeg finally got to react to its former franchise goaltender in person. Instead, Arniel said, “all it does is drag it out,” because the teams meet again on November 28 in New Jersey, nine games from now, and the questions will start all over again.

The players were just as surprised. Jets winger Kyle Connor said he never even considered the idea of Hellebuyck not playing. “I didn’t even think that was a possibility,” Connor said, NHL.com reports. “So, I was pretty surprised. I thought he was playing for sure.” Captain Adam Lowry said he was surprised too, and that he would have loved to play against his former teammate: “We’d all be lying if we said we weren’t looking forward to the opportunity. I think the atmosphere would have been great whether fans were upset, or they wanted to thank him, whatever. It would have been an emotional night, and it would have been a lot of fun,” TSN reports.

Hellebuyck, for his part, is not fighting the decision in public. “I’m disappointed, but I understand,” he said after Sunday’s 4-0 win at Toronto, TSN reports. “I love Winnipeg and playing there again and just facing the music and seeing the reaction, it’d be nice. But it’s out of my hands.” He also said the two sides had talked it through and that he was adamant he wanted to play: “We definitely had a conversation and I told them my thoughts on it and they told me theirs, and at the end of the day, I have to listen to them and I can only push so hard.”

The details around Tuesday now cut against the Devils as well as for them. Jake Allen, who starts, is 9-11-3 with a 3.18 goals-against average and a .884 save percentage in 24 career games against Winnipeg, NHL.com reports, and the 11 regulation losses are the most he has had against any NHL team. Hellebuyck will likely be invisible during the game itself, sitting in the tunnel behind the visitors’ bench or in the Devils’ video room, and NHL.com reports any tribute video Winnipeg had planned for his return has likely been shelved. The one appearance left is the one Hellebuyck asked for: a media availability after Tuesday’s morning skate, where TSN reports he will reveal his reasons for requesting the trade. The game was supposed to close the saga. Arniel’s version is that it only moved the ending to November 28.

Update, November 10: Hellebuyck speaks in Winnipeg

Update note (November 10, 2026): This article tracked Hellebuyck’s media availability after Tuesday’s morning skate, where he was expected to explain why he asked for the trade. He spoke, and the family line he had only hinted at before is now on the record.

Hellebuyck met reporters in Winnipeg on Tuesday afternoon, and for the first time he said plainly what pushed him out. “I’ve alluded to this a little bit,” he said, JetsNation reports. “This was a complex decision and a very difficult one. There’s no one singular moment that wasn’t important in all of this decision-making, and this is over a span of time. I will say with all the uncertainty I was experiencing, there was some moments and some things that happened to my family that for me crossed the line, and as a husband and a father, I felt made that decision very certain.”

He opened with the city, not the grievance. “I want to speak to the love I have for this city and the connection I’ve had with the community, connection I’ve had with the fans,” he said, JetsNation reports. “I’ve had all my career accomplishments here, and I don’t want any of this to change any of that. I still feel like I have a lot of relationships here and close friends that mean a lot to me.” Then the line that will follow him: “The day I said I was a Jet for life, I meant it. But I also didn’t foresee the future that was going to happen.”

On the benching itself, he disagrees and accepts it in the same breath. “They handle their business differently than I’m used to,” he said, JetsNation reports. “I went in there and I said my piece, and I said I felt it was my duty to play this game. I want to play, and I had a good conversation with [head coach Sheldon Keefe] and Sunny [Mehta], and I left that conversation understanding where they’re at.” He is under contract in New Jersey for the next four seasons after this one, and his 5-0-0 start with a .913 save percentage and a 1.96 goals-against average is the sort of goaltending that could make the Devils a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, JetsNation notes.

Arniel’s “gave up on us” line reached him before he spoke, and he answered it directly. “Obviously from an emotional standpoint that hurts,” he said, JetsNation reports. “But I understand. There’s a lot of emotions going on right now. I feel them myself.” Tonight, Jake Allen starts and Hellebuyck dresses as the backup, hockey.com reports, with puck drop at 7 p.m. ET. The morning skate gave Winnipeg its explanation. The game will not give it closure: the teams meet again on November 28 in New Jersey, and the questions start all over again then.